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기사입력 : 2024.01.13 03:53
In 2023, global attention was riveted on two major conflicts: the ongoing war in Europe between Russia and Ukraine, and the escalating tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas. As we step into 2024, these conflicts show no signs of abating. Additionally, a third, potentially more perilous confrontation is emerging — the United States is increasingly at odds with itself.
Yet, these are not the only concerns for 2024. Time magazine highlights the ten most significant global threats for the year:
1) Internal Strife in the United States: Despite its military and economic might, the United States faces unprecedented political dysfunction. The 2024 presidential election is expected to intensify the nation's political divide, posing the greatest challenge to American democracy in 150 years and diminishing the country's global reputation.
2) Middle Eastern Turmoil: The conflict in Gaza is likely to escalate, increasing the risk of a broader regional war in 2024. A wider conflict, potentially drawing in the US and Iran, could have severe implications for the global economy, and geopolitical stability, and could fuel global extremism.
3) Divided Ukraine: The Russian invasion of Ukraine, while a strategic failure, has led to a de facto division of the country. With NATO strengthened by new members and the EU considering Ukrainian accession, Ukraine faces a critical juncture. Without addressing its military challenges, Ukraine risks permanent territorial losses.
4) Uncontrolled Artificial Intelligence: In 2024, the advancement of AI is expected to outpace regulatory controls, with powerful new AI models emerging beyond governmental oversight.
5) Global Geopolitical Rivalries: Russia, North Korea, and Iran are anticipated to enhance their disruptive global activities. Simultaneously, allies like Ukraine, Israel, and potentially Taiwan, may draw the US into unwanted confrontations.
6) China's Economic Downturn: China faces economic challenges in 2024, with potential leadership gaps and public confidence crises, as it fails to reform its economic model and address financial weaknesses.
7) Critical Minerals: These will be crucial in various sectors, including clean energy and defense. Global governments are expected to intensify trade restrictions and industrial policies, disrupting the flow of these minerals.
8) Financial Crisis: The ongoing global inflation, which began in 2021, will continue to impact economies, leading to higher interest rates, slower growth, and increased social unrest and political instability.
9) El Niño: This weather phenomenon is expected to peak in 2024, causing extreme weather events that exacerbate food insecurity, disease spread, and migration, particularly in countries already weakened by the pandemic and conflicts.
10) Cultural and Political Battles in the US: The US culture wars, initially fueled by progressive movements within corporations, are expected to see a conservative counteroffensive in courts, legislatures, and activist groups, increasing uncertainty and costs for companies involved.
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